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Top AI experts badly underestimated how fast the field is moving, study finds

AI experts underestimate the speed of AI progress, study shows. The study notes that AI achieved gold-medal performance at the International Mathematical Olympiad five years ahead of the median expert forecast, and Anthropic’s annual revenue is roughly five times higher than predicted. However, forecasts for real-world applications such as self-driving cars remain mixed, highlighting uneven progress across domains. These findings suggest that AI developers and investors may need to revise their expectations and planning models.

The Decoder·Sep 24, 2026

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