AI experts underestimate the speed of AI progress, study shows. The study notes that AI achieved gold-medal performance at the International Mathematical Olympiad five years ahead of the median expert forecast, and Anthropic’s annual revenue is roughly five times higher than predicted. However, forecasts for real-world applications such as self-driving cars remain mixed, highlighting uneven progress across domains. These findings suggest that AI developers and investors may need to revise their expectations and planning models.
Opening Kapyn…